China's latest virus: Better safe than sorry
from The Economist May 8th 2008
Once bitten, twice shy: China's past transgressions in reporting viruses come back to haunt it in the run-up to the Olympics
IT IS all too reminiscent of an epidemic that paralysed Beijing and other parts of China in 2003. This month state-run television has been showing pictures of conscientious health officials and mask-wearing schoolteachers fighting an outbreak of disease by spraying disinfectant on every accessible surface. And, as they did in 2003, Chinese authorities are insisting that things are under control.
In 2003 the disease in question was the mysterious Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS). As it turned out, the Chinese authorities were lying outright about where things stood. Their obfuscation made things much worse. In the end, SARS spread far beyond China, killing 774 people worldwide. This time the problem is a less exotic and better understood bug, called enterovirus 71 (EV71), which can cause a dangerous form of hand, foot and mouth disease. This is a common childhood illness that sometimes kills but often is cured with no lasting harm.
China has reported 30 deaths in the current outbreak, centred in the town of Fuyang in the central province of Anhui. By May 7th China had reported a total of 15,799 cases. This was a sharp increase from the previous day's tally of 12,000. But officials said this was because surveillance was improving, not because the spread of the virus was accelerating.
There is no evidence of any systematic cover-up by the central government. But local officials took too long to sound the alarm. In Anhui ten doctors handling the outbreak were disciplined for misconduct and—fairly or not—China's poor track record on such matters leads to obvious questions about its openness and trustworthiness. But the World Health Organisation (WHO), which in 2003 struggled mightily with Chinese footdragging on SARS, now sees no indication of a cover-up. The WHO's China representative, Hans Troedsson, expressed concern about the unusual concentration of cases in Anhui, and about the occurrence of pulmonary and neurological symptoms not typically seen with hand, foot and mouth disease. But he also called for “the right perspective” in viewing the situation, pointing out that such outbreaks happen regularly in countries in the region.
Indeed, China last year saw a total of 80,000 cases and 17 deaths. But this year's outbreak has caused unusual nervousness because it comes just three months before the start of the Beijing Olympics in August. As the disease tends to peak in the heat of June and July, health authorities say that more cases are likely. Despite signs of new cases in two Beijing kindergartens, Mao Qun'an of China's health ministry insists the outbreak will have no impact on the games. An anxious nation and its visitors want very much to believe him.
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